The metro median rose 2.2 percent in July. Four of our six core localities posted year-over-year declines. Both statements are true, and the gap between them is the most useful thing in the July data.
Headline market coverage works at the metro level because that is where the sample size is. It is also where the interesting information gets averaged away. When you break July 2026 down by locality, the Richmond region was not one market moving in one direction. It was a region carried by a single county.
Year-over-year change in median sale price, July 2026 vs July 2025
| Locality | July 2026 median | YoY change | Closed sales (YoY) | Days on market | Months supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henrico County | $475,000 | +11.8% | 287 (-2.0%) | 16 | 1.5 |
| Hanover County | $525,000 | +1.0% | 137 (+33.0%) | 21 | 2.4 |
| Goochland County | $655,000 | -3.0% | 44 (+51.7%) | 30 | 2.8 |
| Chesterfield County | $440,000 | -3.3% | 407 (-8.3%) | 21 | 1.8 |
| City of Richmond | $450,000 | -3.4% | 218 (+6.9%) | 17 | 1.5 |
| Powhatan County | $486,250 | -3.4% | 46 (+4.5%) | 22 | 3.1 |
| Richmond Metro | $460,000 | +2.2% | 1,049 (+0.5%) | 19 | 1.8 |
Month covered: July 2026, single family detached. Source: Central Virginia Regional MLS SortStats, published by the Richmond Association of REALTORS, data current as of August 10, 2026. All figures as published; no values have been derived or estimated.
[DATA NEEDED: price per square foot by locality. CVR MLS does not publish price per square foot in its public SortStats tables or FastStats reports, so a like-for-like size adjustment is not possible from public data.]
Four declines, and none of them mean what they look like
Chesterfield, the city, Powhatan and Goochland all printed declines between 3.0 and 3.4 percent. That is a remarkably tight cluster, and tight clusters across very different submarkets usually indicate a compositional effect rather than four independent local stories.
A median is the middle sale, not the average house. It moves when the mix of what sells changes, even if no individual home changes value. If fewer large or high-end homes closed in Chesterfield in July 2026 than in July 2025, the county median falls whether or not a single Chesterfield homeowner lost equity.
Chesterfield’s closed sales fell 8.3 percent, from 444 to 407. Fewer transactions plus a 3.3 percent median decline is the classic signature of a thinner top end rather than broad depreciation.
Henrico is the number to interrogate, not to celebrate
An 11.8 percent year-over-year median gain is very large for a county of Henrico’s size. It deserves the same skepticism as the declines.
Henrico’s closed sales fell 2.0 percent while its median rose 11.8 percent. Volume down, median sharply up, on the tightest supply in the region at 1.5 months and the fastest sales at 16 days. That combination is consistent with a mix shift toward higher price bands, most plausibly driven by new construction closings in the western end of the county around Short Pump, Twin Hickory and West Broad Village.
If you own in eastern Henrico, the county’s 11.8 percent has very little to do with your house. A county median is a poor proxy for a neighborhood, and Henrico is one of the most internally varied localities in the region.
The two counties nobody is talking about
Goochland and Powhatan are where the small-sample warning matters most. Goochland closed 44 single family sales in July. Powhatan closed 46.
At that volume a handful of transactions swings the median by tens of thousands of dollars. Goochland’s median of $655,000 is the highest in the region and its supply, at 2.8 months, is among the loosest. Powhatan is looser still at 3.1 months, the closest thing to a balanced market our footprint has.
Both are worth watching precisely because supply is building there while it tightens in the core. That is the earliest place a genuine buyer’s market would appear. Our post on whether it is cheaper to live outside Richmond covers what you trade for it, and what land and acreage costs covers the rural end.
Find out what your house actually did
County medians will not tell you. We will pull the comparable sales on your street for the last six months and give you a real number rather than a regional average.
What holds the whole region up
Months supply. The metro sits at 1.8 months and every core locality except Powhatan is under three. A balanced market is conventionally five to six months.
Prices do not fall meaningfully while supply is that tight, regardless of what any single month’s median does. Tight supply is the floor under the whole region, and it has not moved. Metro inventory fell 5.3 percent year over year to 1,590 homes and new listings fell 7.8 percent. Sellers are not flooding in, which is the structural reason four localities can print a negative median without anything resembling a downturn.
The offsetting signal is demand. Pending sales across the metro fell 10.3 percent in July, the sharpest move in the report. If that persists into the autumn while supply stays flat, the picture changes. One month does not establish it.
The national backdrop, for scale
The National Association of REALTORS reported existing-home sales down 2.4 percent month over month in the same period, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million, and up 2.8 percent year over year. Sales rose in the Northeast and fell in the South, West and Midwest.
Set against that, a metro posting +2.2 percent on price and +0.5 percent on volume is unremarkable in the best sense. Richmond is not diverging from the country. What is distinctive here is the internal spread: a 15.2 point gap between Henrico at +11.8 percent and the City of Richmond and Powhatan at -3.4 percent, inside a single commuting radius.
How to read a locality median without fooling yourself
Three habits worth adopting.
Look at closed sales alongside the median every time. A median move on falling volume is usually mix. A median move on rising volume is more likely to be real.
Discount anything under about 75 sales a month. Goochland and Powhatan qualify, and so do most individual neighborhoods, which is why neighborhood-level medians published monthly are close to meaningless.
Prefer months supply and days on market as measures of market temperature. They are less sensitive to mix than price is. On both measures July 2026 was a tight market: 19 days and 1.8 months across the metro.
For the full metro picture including pending sales and percent of list received, see our July 2026 market update, and our standing read on whether Richmond is a buyer’s or a seller’s market. You can also review recently sold properties to see what actual closings look like against these averages.
Frequently asked questions
Did Richmond home prices go down in 2026?
In four of six core localities, the July median was lower than a year earlier: Chesterfield at -3.3 percent, the City of Richmond at -3.4 percent, Powhatan at -3.4 percent and Goochland at -3.0 percent. The metro median still rose 2.2 percent to $460,000, carried largely by Henrico’s 11.8 percent gain.
Does a falling county median mean my house lost value?
Not necessarily and usually not. A median tracks the middle sale, so it moves when the mix of homes selling changes. Chesterfield’s closed sales fell 8.3 percent alongside its 3.3 percent median decline, which points to fewer high-end closings rather than broad depreciation.
Why did Henrico rise almost 12 percent?
Most likely mix. Henrico’s volume fell 2.0 percent while its median rose 11.8 percent, on 1.5 months of supply and 16 days on market. Volume down with median sharply up is the signature of higher price bands making up a larger share of closings, plausibly new construction in western Henrico.
Which Richmond-area county is closest to a buyer’s market?
Powhatan, at 3.1 months of supply and 22 days on market in July 2026, followed by Goochland at 2.8 months. Both are still well under the five to six months conventionally considered balanced, but they are the loosest in the region.
How many sales does a median need to be reliable?
As a rough working rule, treat anything under about 75 monthly sales as noisy. Goochland closed 44 and Powhatan 46 in July 2026. Chesterfield at 407 and Henrico at 287 are large enough that the direction means something, even if the magnitude is mix-driven.
Is the region heading for a downturn?
Nothing in the July data supports that. Supply at 1.8 months and inventory down 5.3 percent are not downturn conditions. The one number that would matter if it persists is pending sales, down 10.3 percent, because pendings lead closings by roughly 30 to 45 days.
Where can I get the underlying numbers?
The Richmond Association of REALTORS publishes CVR MLS reports free each month, typically by the 15th, including sortable county tables and per-area market updates.
Thinking about selling into this?
Four negative county medians and 1.8 months of supply are not contradictory, but they do change pricing strategy. See how we list homes or reach us at (804) 601-4960.
